As summer draws to a close, the country's housing market, which has recently favored sellers, shifts into a "neutral" state as October approaches, placing buyers and sellers on an even playing field. Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow®, says that a more balanced market would probably have fewer buyers. If you want to sell in the fall, you might wonder what constitutes a "neutral market."
According to him, the type of market highlights how crucial it is to determine the ideal list price because, in contrast to other listings, those that are priced competitively and effectively advertised get under contract in an average of just eighteen days.
Setting a price for a property that will sell strategically is never simple, but it can be particularly difficult in the fall when buyers with financial difficulties still struggle with affordability. In July, over 25% of sellers nationwide (i.e., the greatest percentage in the last five years) lowered their prices for the spring-summer selling season.
Divounguy claims that sellers "haven't gotten the memo quite yet." He also said that: "They're still listing their homes too high. That's why you're seeing more price cuts on these homes. And the homes that are mispriced are staying on the market longer."
In addition to learning how much to charge for a home, sellers and prospective buyers have a lot to consider this autumn, from the very variable local market circumstances to concerns about the direction of mortgage rates. Here are our predictions for the fall selling season of 2024:
- Improvements in affordability combined with a slow or flat rate of increase in home prices may attract more buyers than sellers.
Fall is typically the slowest season for house sales, partly because parents with young children tend to put off house hunting after the school year begins. According to Zillow data, consumers withdrew from house hunting earlier this year than usual. This decreased competition across the country and forced sellers to lower their asking prices and make concessions to draw in buyers.
The retreat affects inventories, which rose in July in all but five of the major metro areas that Zillow economists examined. It's also having an impact on property values, which just marginally increased in July, per a recent Zillow research.
According to Zillow's projection, home values will rise by 1% nationally over the next 12 months, which is a significant deceleration from previous years, according to Divounguy.
"While price growth could continue to ease somewhat, I don't expect big price declines," Divounguy says. "TWe’ll need to see a big increase in inventory to see a large decline in home values. Recent small improvements in affordability could bring back more buyers than sellers, which could slow the increase in housing inventory, and prevent the market from cooling further."
The number of available homes in the US will drop by 4.5 million in 2022, per Zillow research. Apart from their scarcity, the annual production of new residences has not kept pace with the rate of construction. Even while buyers find it difficult to pay, sellers should expect steady home values for the foreseeable future as a result of the shortage.
- The rate of mortgages might not drop much more.
It is generally anticipated that the Federal Reserve Board will lower its main policy rate in September and maybe later. The Fed's projections may already be reflected in current mortgage rates, though.
He believes that long-term economic variables like inflation and the state of the economy as a whole are often taken into account by lenders when setting interest rates. Therefore, even while the expectation of Fed rate cuts may be influencing mortgage rates at the moment, additional declines in mortgage rates are unlikely if economic growth continues to be robust.
Despite a decline from the 2.8% seasonally adjusted rate seen in the second quarter, the US economy's third-quarter seasonally adjusted annual growth rate is 2%.
Although it has somewhat improved, most prospective purchasers still face significant barriers due to housing affordability. Home prices may rise as more purchasers try to take advantage of the recent rate reduction.
Additionally, since interest rates aren't going to continue dropping, buyers will probably continue to feel pressured by the combination of high house prices, higher-than-usual interest rates, and the necessity of saving money for a down payment.
- Well-marketed and priced homes continue to sell swiftly.
Because of the budget issue, consumers are searching for the greatest offers.
Well-priced and well-marketed properties continue to sell quickly, even if the majority of listings decline. Properties that sold in July took just 18 days to go pending, which is six days less than a year ago but still quicker than before the outbreak.
Zillow data also indicates that greater sale premiums are associated with contemporary characteristics that distinguish a home as either brand new or recently updated. Small upgrades that give your house a "new construction" appearance, marketing resources like virtual floor plans and 3D home tours on your listing, and well-thought-out pricing may make a big impact.
The Local Image
The local situation is contradictory, even though the national market is no longer a seller's market. Certain markets still favor sellers, while others favor buyers.
Key Takeaways For Home Sellers This Autumn
Discuss the plan of action based on the state of the local market with a real estate agent.
An experienced real estate agent in your area may assess your house to see what it might bring in light of the neighborhood's characteristics and the prices at which previously sold comparable properties in the area.
Take note of the cost.
As mentioned above, well-priced and well-maintained homes still sell rapidly, but if there aren't many sales in your region to compare prices to, it may be difficult to determine the proper price.
Think about making accommodations.
If sellers make accommodations that enable purchasers to reduce their monthly mortgage payments, they could do so faster. According to the National Association of Home Builders, 61% of builders make compromises to succeed in this market without having to lower costs.
“If builders are offering incentives to buyers, then sellers should probably do the same to keep well-priced homes moving,’’ advises Divounguy.
What are your thoughts? Feel free to share them in the comments!